The UK heating industry has never stood still, but the pace of change over the last few years has been hard to ignore. Between evolving government policy, increasing demand for low-carbon heating and changing customer expectations, installers are being asked more questions than ever before.
Are gas boilers being phased out? Will heat pumps replace boilers altogether? Is hydrogen still on the cards? What should I be recommending to customers today?
The reality is far less dramatic than many headlines suggest, and neither will be completely phased out for a while.
Gas boilers aren’t disappearing overnight. Existing homes will continue to rely on them for years to come, while off-grid properties will still need efficient oil heating solutions. At the same time, heat pumps are becoming increasingly common as the Future Homes Standard mandates every new build must have a heat pump from 2028 onwards. Heat pumps will also be desired for well-suited retrofit projects, creating new opportunities for installers willing to expand their skillset.
Are gas boilers really being phased out?
This is probably the question installers hear most often. The short answer? No, not in the way many people think.
There is currently no ban preventing homeowners from replacing an existing gas boiler with a new gas boiler. Millions of UK homes remain connected to the gas network, and high-efficiency condensing boilers will continue to be installed and serviced for many years.
The biggest changes are taking place in new-build housing, of which about 170,390 were completed in 2025.
The Government’s Future Homes Standard has been created to ensure new homes produce significantly lower carbon emissions than those built under previous regulations. The intention is that most new homes will use low-carbon heating technologies such as heat pumps as opposed to gas boilers in order to help support the UK’s wider ambition of reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
The Future Homes Standard doesn’t mean installers should stop fitting boilers tomorrow. It simply means the heating landscape is broadening.
For most installers, the retrofit market, which represents the vast majority of UK housing, will continue to provide substantial opportunities for boiler replacement, servicing and system upgrades alongside newer technologies, whether that’s gas boilers or otherwise.
Heat pumps are growing, but they’re not the answer for every property
There’s no question that heat pumps are becoming more common.
Government support through the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, combined with improvements in technology, has made them a much more attractive option than they were just a few years ago. Installers working in modern or [AT1] well-insulated retrofit properties are likely to see increasing demand and is worth keeping in mind in terms of expanding your overall skillset.
The Government has also extended the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, which currently offers grants of £7,500 towards eligible air source and ground source heat pump installations in England and Wales. However, despite this, heat pumps are still not going to completely replace gas boilers.
Many existing homes simply aren’t immediately suited to low-temperature heating without wider improvements. Older properties may require larger radiators, upgraded pipework, improved insulation or additional electrical work before a heat pump can operate efficiently and at the same level as typical boilers. That’s why installers increasingly need to assess the whole heating system, not just the heat source.
What about hydrogen boilers?
Hydrogen has generated plenty of discussion over recent years, particularly around the possibility of using existing gas infrastructure to reduce carbon emissions. Several trials have explored hydrogen’s potential, and manufacturers including ourselves, have continued to monitor developments closely. This is why we have created the NCB ON range offering hydrogen-ready options if this becomes an option as British infrastructure develops.
That said, the challenge is that hydrogen infrastructure is still some way from nationwide adoption. It is still questionable as a source in regards to production, distribution as well as cost. It’s being considered as a longer term option rather than a replacement for natural gas in the near future.
For installers, it’s worth staying informed, but it shouldn’t distract from the technologies customers are asking about today.
Don’t forget oil heating
When conversations turn to the future of heating, off-grid properties are sometimes overlooked. Around 1.7 million UK homes aren’t connected to the gas grid, many relying on oil-fired heating systems.
For these customers, replacing an ageing appliance with a modern, highly efficient oil boiler can still represent a significant improvement in energy efficiency, reliability and emissions compared to older equipment.
The future of heating isn’t just electric. It’s about choosing the right technology for the right property.
The installer’s role is changing
Perhaps the biggest shift isn’t the equipment itself and what’s being installed but rather it’s the conversations surrounding it. Customers are arriving with more questions, more online research and more uncertainty than ever before. It was believed that gas boilers were potentially close to being banned but in fact, the UK government overturned plans to place a full ban on new gas boilers by 2035. This shows how there is no intention to completely phase them out anytime soon.
That’s where installers add real value. Rather than selling a single technology, today’s heating professionals increasingly act as consultants, assessing the property, understanding customer priorities and recommending the most suitable solution for their heating needs.
That advice might lead to:
- A high-efficiency combi boiler replacement.
- An oil boiler for an off-grid property.
- An air source heat pump.
- A hybrid approach where appropriate.
- Heating system improvements such as upgraded emitters or smarter controls.
The recommendation shouldn’t start with the product. It should start with the property.
New skills create new opportunities
As heating technologies diversify, installers who continue developing their skills will naturally be better positioned for future work. That doesn’t necessarily mean moving away from boilers altogether.
Instead, it means understanding:
- Low-temperature heating design.
- Heat loss calculations.
- Smart heating controls.
- System efficiency optimisation.
- Heat pump fundamentals.
- Government funding schemes and eligibility.
For installers interested in heat pumps, becoming Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) certified is also essential for customers wishing to access the Boiler Upgrade Scheme. At Navien, our PEM750 range of air source heat pumps is certified.
Demand for qualified installers is expected to continue growing as low-carbon heating becomes more common. At the same time, boiler servicing, maintenance and replacement will remain a core part of the industry for years to come. Rather than replacing existing skills, renewable technologies build on them.
What does this mean for your business?
It’s easy to view industry change as disruption. In reality, it often creates opportunity. Homeowners still need reliable heating; developers still need compliant systems and off-grid customers still require dependable oil heating.
Millions of existing boilers will eventually need replacing. As heating technologies diversify, customers increasingly need experienced installers who can explain the options clearly rather than simply fitting whichever appliance they’ve seen advertised online.
The future of heating isn’t one technology
The question shouldn’t be, “What will replace gas boilers?”
A better question is:
“What heating solution is right for this property?”
Sometimes that’ll be a heat pump.
Sometimes it’ll be a high-efficiency gas boiler.
Sometimes it’ll be an oil boiler.
The future isn’t about one technology replacing another overnight; it’s about giving installers the knowledge and confidence to recommend the right solution for every customer.
As the market continues to evolve, those who stay informed, continue learning and embrace a broader range of heating technologies will be best placed to grow their business.
At Navien, we’re committed to supporting installers through that transition with reliable heating solutions, technical expertise and ongoing product innovation, helping you stay ready for whatever comes next.
